IPCC: Earth could warm by 4.8 ° C by 2100 - Update

The Point.fr – Published on 27/09/2013 at 10:49 – Edited on 27/09/2013 10:56

Under the new scientific appraisal of climate change, rising sea level was revised upward.

responsibility of man in global warming is more certain than ever, and the average temperature of the Earth is expected to climb from 0.3 to 4.8 ° C by 2100, according to a new report from the IPCC climate experts agreed Friday in Stockholm. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also revised upward the increase in sea level, which should be 26 to 82 cm by 2100, according to new scientific appraisal of climate change.

to the IPCC, it is now “very likely” that human influence is the main cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century, equivalent to 95% confidence in the precise terminology of the report. In its last report in 2007, this certainty was 90%. About the possible magnitude of warming by the end of the century, the IPCC has identified four possible scenarios without commenting on the likelihood of each.

The IPCC and considers it likely that the Earth is warming between 0.3 ° C, in the most optimistic scenario, and 4.8 ° C by the end of the century the average temperature of the period 1986-2005. The high uncertainty obviously dependent primarily on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that will be emitted into the atmosphere in the coming decades. The Earth has warmed by about 0.8 ° C since pre-industrial times. “Limiting climate change will require substantial and enduring emission greenhouse gas emission reductions,” he said in a statement Thomas Stocker, vice-chairman of the IPCC group.

projections revised upward

IPCC experts also expect that global warming causes more intense extreme weather events, although some aspects are not yet entirely clear. “Heat waves are likely to occur more frequently and last longer. With global warming, we expect to see the currently wet regions receive more rainfall, and dry regions receive less, although it will be exceptions, “according to Thomas Stocker.

Regarding the rising sea level, one of the major consequences of global warming, the IPCC has revised upwards its projections: Scientists now believe that it can rise by an average of 26-82 cm by 2100 against 18 to 59 cm in the 2007 report. Climatologists now take better account of a phenomenon that is still insufficiently studied there 6 years. Flow into the oceans coastal glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica

The IPCC, created 25 years ago under the aegis of the UN’s mission is to establish an inventory of global warming to inform political and economic leaders, but does not provide recommendations.